2015 ISSUE 1

TÍTLE: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS ON FOOTBALL PLAYERS’ VALUATION
AUTHORS: Jerónimo AZNAR, Vicente ESTRUCH
ABSTRACT: The aim of this paper is to introduce the application of the multi criteria methodology AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) on the valuation of football players. This is a pioneering work in this field. The importance of the topic is very relevant, given the size of football’s economy. The main advantages of this novel valuation methodology are that it can be used even thought number of comparables is scarce and that all the process is tradable and transparent. In this paper, following the description of the valuation methodology, a real-life application is presented.
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TÍTLE: BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION OF SPANISH FIRMS BY MEANS OF A ROBUST LOGIT MODEL
AUTHORS: Inmaculada BARTUAL
ABSTRACT: This paper applies a logit regression model on a vast database of Spanish firms to predict their insolvency using accounting information. The database is balanced, in the sense that more than 25% of the companies included are insolvent. In order to contrast the robustness of the methodology, as well as the impact of the selected database on the results obtained by the logit model, 1000 simulations have been undertaken. In each simulation two random groups have been created, one with 80% of the firms and another group with the remaining companies. The first group has been employed to generate the model, whereas the second group has been used to test the model obtained.
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TÍTLE: STOCK MARKET INVESTMENT IMPLEMENTING TECHNICAL ANALYSIS STRATEGIES: MOVING AVERAGE CROSSOVER
AUTHORS: Marcos Pla-María, Fernando GARCÍA
ABSTRACT: Stock market investors who decide to implement active portfolio management strategies have a wide range of alternatives within the chartist analysis or the technical analysis. But, in order to succeed in terms of return and risk, these strategies must properly be defined and must regard different factors. It is advisable to appeal to the statistical analysis to test the validity of the strategy before implementing it in the real markets. The strategy must be tested carefully, using a wide range of validation data including bear, bull and lateral markets. Overoptimization must be avoided. In this paper the most important aspects to control for when defining an investment strategy based on moving average are analyzed and proposals are made regarding how this strategy should be implemented.
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TÍTLE: MULTICRITERIA RANKING OF THE SPANISH DIGITAL PRESS
AUTHORS: Francisco GUIJARRO
ABSTRACT: The growing importance of the digital press and the decline of the traditional one makes the companies in this sector undertaking new management strategies to gain notoriety in the internet. A simple way to contrast the validity of the strategies is through a ranking which allows to compare the relative position of the companies within the industry from a global perspective. This work introduces a multicriteria ranking methodology to quantify the influence of the Spanish digital newspapers using a number of criteria, weighting them objectively. Furthermore, new research lines are commented regarding new criteria that could be used to calculate the ranking.
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TÍTLE: EVOLUTION OF THE VOLATILITY IN STOCK EXCHANGE INDICES: THE CASE OF S&P 500, NIKKEI, DAX30 AND IBEX35
AUTHORS: Javier OLIVER
ABSTRACT: This paper analyses the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock Exchange volatility. Previous studies show that this link exists in the short term but not in the long term. Furthermore, volatility asymmetries confirm the increase in volatility when economic recessions or international financial shocks occur. The effect of such shocks on the increase of the volatility in stock exchange indices depends on each index. So, more volatility must be expected for countries with worse macroeconomic situation.
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